Reports of “Long-COVID”, are rising but little is known about prevalence, risk factors, or whether it is possible to predict a protracted course early in the disease. We analysed data from 4182 incident cases of COVID-19 who logged their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app. 558 (13.3%) had symptoms lasting >28 days, 189 (4.5%) for >8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for >12 weeks. Long-COVID was characterised by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnoea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age, BMI and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with Long-COVID, OR=3.53 [2.76;4.50]. A simple model to distinguish between short and long-COVID at 7 days, which gained a ROC-AUC of 76%, was replicated in an independent sample of 2472 antibody positive individuals. This model could be used to identify individuals for clinical trials to reduce long-term symptoms and target education and rehabilitation services.
Sudre, Carole & Murray, Benjamin & Varsavsky, Thomas & Graham, Mark & Penfold, Rose & Bowyer, Ruth & Pujol, Joan & Klaser, Kerstin & Antonelli, Michela & Canas, Liane & Molteni, Erika & Modat, Marc & Cardoso, Manuel Jorge & May, Anna & Ganesh, Sajaysurya & Davies, Richard & Nguyen, Long & Drew, David & Astley, Christina & Steves, Claire. (2020). Attributes and predictors of Long-COVID: analysis of COVID cases and their symptoms collected by the Covid Symptoms Study App. 10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494.